The air in Vatican City is thick with anticipation. Next Wednesday, the hallowed doors of the Sistine Chapel will swing shut as the cardinals eligible to elect the successor to the late Pope Francis begin their solemn conclave. And amidst the hushed whispers and fervent prayers, a truly historic possibility hangs in the balance: could the next leader of the Catholic Church hail from sub-Saharan Africa? While many African Catholics view it as a long shot, a cautious optimism simmers that a Black cardinal from their vibrant continent might just be the one chosen to lead the global flock. The world waits to see if centuries of tradition are about to be broken, ushering in a new era for the Catholic Church.
Vatican observers are abuzz with speculation, and the term on everyone's lips is "papabile" – those cardinals considered potential contenders for the papacy. Among the names frequently cited are at least three prominent African cardinals:
Cardinal Robert Sarah of Guinea: A towering figure within the Vatican, the 79-year-old former liturgy chief is a staunch defender of traditional Catholic doctrine and an adherent of the old Latin Mass. Despite his retirement in 2021, he remains eligible to participate in the conclave and has emerged as a favorite among European traditionalists seeking a reversal of Pope Francis' more progressive policies.
Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana: A respected voice on social justice issues and a former president of the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace, Cardinal Turkson brings a wealth of experience in global affairs to the table. His more moderate stance on some issues might appeal to a broader range of electors.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo of Congo: As the Archbishop of Kinshasa, the capital of the African nation with the highest number of baptized Catholics, Cardinal Ambongo carries significant weight within the African Catholic community. While he signed a statement rejecting the Vatican's declaration on blessings for same-sex couples, his leadership in a rapidly growing Catholic region makes him a noteworthy contender.
If any of these esteemed cardinals are chosen, it would mark a profound turning point in the history of the Catholic Church. Not only would he be the first African pope in over 1,500 years, but he would also be the very first from sub-Saharan Africa. This historical weight fuels a deep yearning for change among many Catholics on the continent, a desire to see their growing presence within the Church reflected at its highest level. However, this eagerness is often tempered by a sense of realism, a recognition of the deeply entrenched traditions and power dynamics within the Vatican. The memory of the 2005 conclave, where the respected Nigerian Cardinal Francis Arinze garnered significant media attention but ultimately did not ascend to the papacy, serves as a reminder that the world's readiness for a Black African pope has been a question mark for decades.
The demographics of the Catholic Church are undergoing a significant transformation. While Catholicism continues to see a decline in Europe, it is experiencing remarkable growth in the developing world, particularly in Africa. Recent Vatican reports indicate that at least 20% of the global Catholic community now resides in Africa, a continent characterized by a "highly dynamic spread" of the faith. This demographic shift has led some to argue that having a pope from Africa, or Asia – another region experiencing strong Catholic growth – would send a powerful message of inclusivity and reflect the changing face of the Church. However, as Pope Francis' own papacy has demonstrated, efforts towards inclusivity can be divisive and even breed dissent within different factions of the global Catholic community.
The three African cardinals considered "papabile" – Sarah, Ambongo, and Turkson – are generally viewed as holding orthodox views on some of the key, often contentious issues currently facing the Catholic Church. This aligns with the wider social conservatism prevalent across the African continent, home to 1.3 billion people. This more traditional stance on doctrine in Africa has, at times, been at odds with Pope Francis' pastoral vision, which emphasized mercy and understanding for all marginalized groups, including LGBTQ+ Catholics. This real-life tension was even reflected in the Oscar-nominated film "Conclave," where one of the fictional papal contenders was a socially conservative cardinal from Nigeria.
As the cardinals prepare to enter the conclave, their past pronouncements and actions are under intense scrutiny. Cardinal Ambongo, the influential archbishop of Kinshasa, last year joined other African bishops in signing a statement that directly contradicted a Vatican declaration allowing priests to offer spontaneous, non-liturgical blessings to same-sex couples. This statement asserted that same-sex unions were "contrary to the will of God," citing biblical teachings and claiming that such unions are "contradictory to cultural norms" in Africa.
However, it is Cardinal Sarah who has presented a more public and at times challenging stance towards Pope Francis's reforms. A darling of traditionalists within the Church, Cardinal Sarah is known for his preference for silent prayer and his strong adherence to the old Latin Mass. He is a vocal and unwavering defender of long-standing doctrinal faith. Following Pope Francis's 2021 decision to reimpose restrictions on celebrating the Latin Mass (which Pope Benedict XVI had eased), Cardinal Sarah responded with pointed tweets quoting Benedict's original 2007 law that relaxed those restrictions. His posts were even accompanied by a photograph of Pope Benedict wearing the red cape that Pope Francis famously eschewed on the night of his election – a subtle yet significant visual statement. A year prior, Cardinal Sarah orchestrated a media firestorm by persuading the then-retired Pope Benedict XVI to co-author a book reaffirming priestly celibacy, a move seen by many as a direct challenge to Pope Francis's consideration of ordaining married men to address the clergy shortage in the Amazon region. The ensuing scandal led to Benedict eventually removing himself as a co-author.
Despite the potential for a historic African papacy, many Catholics on the continent, where Pope Francis was widely beloved for his engagement with Africa's numerous crises, simply desire a pope who will be a faithful and unifying leader for the entire global Church. As Luka Lawrence Ndenge, an emergency officer with the Catholic charity Caritas in the remote town of Wau in South Sudan, eloquently stated, "For us, it does not matter whether he is African, white, or Black. What matters is having a good, holy pope who can unite Catholics across the world." While acknowledging the capabilities of African cardinals, his sentiment reflects a broader desire for a leader who transcends geographical boundaries and focuses on the spiritual well-being of the entire Catholic community.
Bishop Tesfaselassie Medhin, primate of Adigrat in the war-torn Ethiopian region of Tigray, echoed this sentiment, expressing his hope that the next pope will embody the same compassion as Pope Francis, who repeatedly drew attention to the devastating conflict in Tigray. However, Bishop Medhin also admitted that the prospect of having a Black African pope is undeniably exciting. "For me, having a passionate, dedicated and competent African leading the Catholic Church is very important to me as an African and to see it in my lifetime is my absolute wish," he shared, revealing the personal significance such a historic event would hold.
In Kampala, Uganda, Emily Mwaka, a leader within the Catholic laity, prefers to avoid speculating about the next pope, particularly concerning his ethnicity. When she encountered a group discussing potential African papal contenders based on a newspaper article, she gently steered them away from the topic. Her perspective underscores a focus on the spiritual role of the papacy above all else. Even if the next pontiff were "green," she stated simply, "he 'will be for all of us.'" As the cardinals gather in the Sistine Chapel, the world holds its breath, aware that the choice they make will not only determine the future direction of the Catholic Church but could also mark an unprecedented moment in its long and storied history.
